Overview: California’s Secretary of State’s office has reported that several counties shifted to voting for Republican candidate and President-Elect Donald Trump during the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020. The decline in voters compared to 2020, which saw record voter turnout, and the concerns over the expanding housing crisis, increase in homeless populations, inflation and health care were key issues across the state.
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As California continues to process ballots during the canvassing period, current election results reported by the California Secretary of State’s office show that several counties shifted to voting for Republican candidate and President-Elect Donald Trump during the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020.
While Vice President Kamala Harris secured 8.3 million votes and Trump received more than five million votes, several factors contributed to the shift in votes in specific counties across the state toward Trump and the Republican Party.
Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), observed that one contributing factor was the decline in voters compared to 2020, which saw record voter turnout.
According to California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, there were 22,047,448 million registered voters as of October 2020 and 17,785,151 total votes were cast.
As of Nov. 13, 14,236,058 ballots have been processed across the state, with an estimated 1,856,348 ballots remaining to be counted.
While Trump secured the majority of votes in counties that he lost in the 2020 election, it was by a small margin.
“But I do want to point out that I wouldn’t consider this like a major shift,” Baldassare said. Among the eight counties that “flipped red” during this election were counties like Fresno, Butte and Inyo. In 2020, President Joe Biden won these counties like in Inyo where Biden won by a small percentage point difference (48.9% to Trump’s 48.7%).
According to current election results, in San Bernardino County, Trump won 50.5% of votes compared to 2020 where he secured 43.5% of votes. In Riverside County, Trump won 49% of votes compared to 2020 where he received 45% of votes.
In California, Harris received 58.9% of votes to Trump’s 38.1%. In 2020, Biden secured 63.5%of votes, and Trump 34.3%.
“Going into this election, there was just so much concern about the economy, in particular, as it related to the cost of living, housing affordability for so many Californians,” Baldassare explained. “And for those Californians, it seems like some of them voted for change. They voted for change because they weren’t happy with the way things were going in their lives.”
A PPIC survey of 1,646 adult residents conducted in October that asked Californians about state and national issues ahead of the election reported that most Californians named economic conditions, housing costs and homelessness when asked about the most important issue facing people in the state.
Concerns over the expanding housing crisis, increase in homeless populations, inflation and health care were key issues across the state as residents also voted on 10 ballot propositions.
Namely, Proposition 6, which aimed to eliminate slave labor among incarcerated individuals, was a measure many thought would pass. Current election results say otherwise, as 53.5% of residents voted no.
Baldassare received calls from several people asking why the measure failed and didn’t receive more support in the state, when a similar measure passed in Nevada by 60.6% voter approval. According to Baldassare, the ballot’s use of “involuntary servitude” rather than slavery has a role in why the measure failed.
While voter guides and proponents of the proposition described the measure as an anti-slavery measure, on the California ballot, Prop. 4 was described as such: “Eliminates constitutional provision allowing involuntary servitude for incarcerated persons.”
“I understand what the term means, but I’m not sure that it’s a term that resonated with everyone, or they understood this,” Baldassare said.
Nevada Ballot Question No. 4 asked voters, “Shall the Ordinance of the Nevada Constitution and the Nevada Constitution be amended to remove language authorizing the use of slavery and involuntary servitude as a criminal punishment?”
In California, Prop. 6 had just one proponent listed and no opponents, but Baldassare shared that the proposition itself lacked a campaign around what the measure does and lacked language the public could understand.
Votes are still rolling in as the state begins the canvassing period which, by law, gives counties 30 days to count every valid ballot and conduct a required post-election audit.
“What I’m left to think at this point is whether the next four years are going to be like, not the last four years, but the four years before that,” Baldassare said.
President-Elect Trump has already begun to nominate figureheads and cabinet members since he was pronounced the winner of the presidential election.
This week Trump announced Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla) as his nominee for attorney general. Gates resigned following the nomination, in the midst of a House Ethics Committee that had been investigating allegations that Gaetz was involved in the sex trafficking of a 17-year-old girl. His resignation means an end to the investigation and no report will be issued, according to PBS.